Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Jun 21st email, affirmed the bigger picture view of a bottoming (and potentially major bottoming, see longer term below) from that May 3rd spike low at 91.90. The market has indeed rallied since, breaking above the May 30th high at 95.95 and currently chopping near recent highs at 96.70/85 (also the ceiling of the bullish channel from that May 3rd low). Still a bigger picture bull with the recent break above the ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec adding to that view. On a short term basis however, there is scope for another few days/week of correcting before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below). Nearby support is seen at 95.65/80 and the broken ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec (currently at 94.90/05). Resistance remains at the recent highs/ceiling of the bull channel from the May 3rd low (currently at 96.70/85) and 97.25/40 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 100.50). Bottom line : still a big picture bull but risk for a another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the larger upmove.
Strategy/position:
With the view of a more important bottom still in place, looking to trade from the long side but with scope for nearby ranging (and lower levels), would not just buy here. So instead for now, would buy 94.95 and then initially stopping on a close 20 ticks back below the broken ceiling of the channel from Dec. Would also buy on a close 20 ticks above the ceiling of the bullish channel from the May low (don't want to miss the next upleg if the but target is not reached) and in that case initially stopping on a close 20 ticks back below.
Long term outlook:
As been discussing for over the last month, the rangy trade since that May 3rd spike low at 91.90 may be part of an even more major low, and with eventual gains above the March/Dec 2015 highs near 100.50 after. In the big picture, the very long held view of an extended period of sloppy ranging ("complex" correction) since March 2015 (wave IV in the rally from the May 2011 low at 72.10) and with new highs after (within wave V) remains. Note that the rapid bounce from that 91.90 low and false break of the base of the range (and the longer term 92.20/60 support area, also 38% retracement of wave III) and bullish long term technicals (see buy mode on the weekly macd) add to the view that this large correction is "complete" (though still no confirmation "pattern-wise", 5 waves up). Bottom line : no change as a more major bottom is also seen likely in place and with for eventual gains above the March/Dec 2015 highs at 100.50 after.
Strategy/position:
With a more major bottom in place, would use the same entry/exit as the shorter term above as there remains some risk for a more extended period of a broader bottoming.
Current:
Near term : want to be long, see strategy for entry above.
Last : short May 31st at 95.80, took profit Jun 7th at 93.85 (195 ticks).
Longer term : bull bias May 3 at 92.95 to neutral May 31 at 95.80, looking to switch back to bull ahead.
Last: : bear bias Feb 24 at 97.45 to neutral Mar 23rd at 96.05.
Source: www.Actonforex.com
In the Jun 21st email, affirmed the bigger picture view of a bottoming (and potentially major bottoming, see longer term below) from that May 3rd spike low at 91.90. The market has indeed rallied since, breaking above the May 30th high at 95.95 and currently chopping near recent highs at 96.70/85 (also the ceiling of the bullish channel from that May 3rd low). Still a bigger picture bull with the recent break above the ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec adding to that view. On a short term basis however, there is scope for another few days/week of correcting before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below). Nearby support is seen at 95.65/80 and the broken ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec (currently at 94.90/05). Resistance remains at the recent highs/ceiling of the bull channel from the May 3rd low (currently at 96.70/85) and 97.25/40 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 100.50). Bottom line : still a big picture bull but risk for a another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the larger upmove.
Strategy/position:
With the view of a more important bottom still in place, looking to trade from the long side but with scope for nearby ranging (and lower levels), would not just buy here. So instead for now, would buy 94.95 and then initially stopping on a close 20 ticks back below the broken ceiling of the channel from Dec. Would also buy on a close 20 ticks above the ceiling of the bullish channel from the May low (don't want to miss the next upleg if the but target is not reached) and in that case initially stopping on a close 20 ticks back below.
Long term outlook:
As been discussing for over the last month, the rangy trade since that May 3rd spike low at 91.90 may be part of an even more major low, and with eventual gains above the March/Dec 2015 highs near 100.50 after. In the big picture, the very long held view of an extended period of sloppy ranging ("complex" correction) since March 2015 (wave IV in the rally from the May 2011 low at 72.10) and with new highs after (within wave V) remains. Note that the rapid bounce from that 91.90 low and false break of the base of the range (and the longer term 92.20/60 support area, also 38% retracement of wave III) and bullish long term technicals (see buy mode on the weekly macd) add to the view that this large correction is "complete" (though still no confirmation "pattern-wise", 5 waves up). Bottom line : no change as a more major bottom is also seen likely in place and with for eventual gains above the March/Dec 2015 highs at 100.50 after.
Strategy/position:
With a more major bottom in place, would use the same entry/exit as the shorter term above as there remains some risk for a more extended period of a broader bottoming.
Current:
Near term : want to be long, see strategy for entry above.
Last : short May 31st at 95.80, took profit Jun 7th at 93.85 (195 ticks).
Longer term : bull bias May 3 at 92.95 to neutral May 31 at 95.80, looking to switch back to bull ahead.
Last: : bear bias Feb 24 at 97.45 to neutral Mar 23rd at 96.05.
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