US Personal Spending up Solidly Q2/16 to Date

US personal consumer expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% in May 2016, thereby matching market expectations.

• Controlling for the effect of prices, the volume of spending rose by 0.3% to build on an upwardly revised 0.8% (was 0.6%) April gain.

Nominal spending on non-durable goods rose by 0.6% (mainly reflecting a 0.5% volumes increase), and durable purchases increased by 0.3%. Spending on services rose by 0.4%, although most of the increase reflected higher prices, with 'real' services spending up by 0.1% in the month.
The headline PCE deflator remained under pressure.
May's spending increase outpaced a 0.2% monthly personal income gain. The household saving rate slipped to 5.3% from 5.4% in April, but recent declines have to date only reversed a surprising spike higher during the first quarter to a recent peak of 6.0% in March. The May rate is back at the same level as in December 2015.

EURJPY - Sees Recovery On Correction

EURJPY - The pair remains biased to the upside on correction though retaining its broader medium term downtrend. Support comes in at the 113.00 level where a break will aim at the 112.50 level. A turn below here will target the 112.00 level with a breach turning focus to the 111.50 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 114.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 114.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 115.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 115.50 level. All in all, EURJPY eyes further bearishness medium term but faces nearer term recovery.

FTSE Not Out of the Woods Yet

The bigger the drop, the bigger the rebound. That is what has happened with the FTSE 100 index in the aftermath of the UK's vote to leave the EU. In fact, the rebound has been so profound that the index has nearly made good all the losses suffered since the Brexit vote. Clearly, some investors who were lucky enough to come through the Brexit-stimulated drop relatively unscathed may now use this opportunity to either cut or reduce their stocks holdings or at least hedge their exposure by shorting the FTSE. This could especially be the case since we are approaching month-end; it would not look good on money managers who hold stocks in sectors that dropped massively post the Brexit vote. Added to this, bearish speculators who missed the original plunge may be tempted to step in and ride the next potential drop. So the FTSE could easily turn back lower.

US$ Index, Long Held Target above 100.50 Remains

Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Jun 21st email, affirmed the bigger picture view of a bottoming (and potentially major bottoming, see longer term below) from that May 3rd spike low at 91.90. The market has indeed rallied since, breaking above the May 30th high at 95.95 and currently chopping near recent highs at 96.70/85 (also the ceiling of the bullish channel from that May 3rd low). Still a bigger picture bull with the recent break above the ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec adding to that view. On a short term basis however, there is scope for another few days/week of correcting before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below). Nearby support is seen at 95.65/80 and the broken ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec (currently at 94.90/05). Resistance remains at the recent highs/ceiling of the bull channel from the May 3rd low (currently at 96.70/85) and 97.25/40 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 100.50). Bottom line : still a big picture bull but risk for a another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the larger upmove.

USDJPY - Retest Of 2016 Low Maintains Bearish Pressure, Limited Upside Action Seen For Now

The pair retested last Thursday’s new 2016 low on overnight’s fresh weakness. Monday’s trading ended in red, after recovery action stalled at 104.82, confirming persisting downside pressure.
Long bearish candle of last week weighs, with daily technicals being in firm bearish mode.
Final break through 103.50 breakpoint could be delayed for prolonged consolidation, as daily RSI / Slow Stochastic are oversold. However, limited upside action is seen for now, with yesterday’s high at 104.82, marking solid resistance, ahead of 105.20 (Fibo 38.2% of 107.89/103.54 downleg) and former low at

EUR/USD – Euro Resumes Slide, Markets Eye Fed Rate Statement

EUR/USD has posted considerable losses on Tuesday, erasing the gains which marked the Monday session. The pair is trading slightly above the 1.12 level. On the release front, Eurozone Employment Change Industrial Production. Both indicators beat their estimates. In the US, today's highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. The estimate for both reports stands at 0.4%.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which will conclude with a rate statement on Wednesday. The markets have written off a rate hike in June, while a July move remains unlikely, according to the CME Group. The chances of a June hike are just 1.9% compared to a 26.3% in May. The chances of a July hike is 17.9%, compared to 43.2% in May. The sharp drop in market sentiment for a rate hike can be attributed to the dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls report as well as some back pedaling by Fed over the past few weeks.

Aussie Edges Lower as Australian Business Confidence Softens

The Australian dollar has posted small losses on Tuesday, continuing the lack of activity which marked the Monday session. The pair is trading at 0.7360 in the North American session. On the release front, Australian NAB Business Confidence dipped to 3 points. Later in the day, Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment. In the US, Core Retail Sales matched the forecast with a gain of 0.4%, while Retail Sales edged above the forecast, climbing 0.5%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its rate statement, with the markets expecting no change to interest rate levels.

Pound Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast GBP USD to Drop on Strong US Jobs Data

Euro Rallied Yesterday following Shock ECB Decision

The euro (currency : EUR) stole the limelight in the global currency markets yesterday afternoon, as the latest European Central Bank policy announcement saw President Mario Draghi announce a distinctly underwhelming set of monetary policy alterations. 

Hawkish Yellen Improves Fed December Rate Hike Predictions

However, thing are different, very different, on the other side of the Atlantic. Draghi’s US counterpart, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, made some eyebrow-raising comments to Congress shortly after the Italian moneyman had left the stage. 

Will the euro sustain yesterday’s good graces

The euro had a good start to the day against sterling and the US dollar on Monday, as overall sentiment for a US rate hike in the upcoming months became more unlikely. It was a very quiet day for the single currency on the data front. Italian business confidence data was released, coming out much better than expected, at 104.2 in comparison to the forecasted figure of 102.7. The euro finally breached the key resistance level against sterling of 1.35, a key level it hadn’t broken since May this year.

Today is an important day for the single currency, with Business and Consumer confidence data due from the Eurozone. Given the strength of today’s Italian figure, it is hoped that the Eurozone data will also be improved; whether the former was sufficient to affect the latter remains to be seen. Germany also releases its preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data; an indicator of inflation, it is forecast to fall to a negative figure of -0.1%, down from 0%. Falling below the zero percent line is a physiological level and is likely to unsettle the single currency yet again.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source:smartcurrencyexchange.com

Amlin purchase bid boosts sterling

With very little economic news of note discharged on Tues, sterling announce gains against each the monetary unit and North American nation dollar as news poor of a £3.5 billion bid by a Japanese company, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, to buy Great Britain nondepository financial institution Amlin.

With investors recently pushing back dates on once the Bank of European country (BoE) area unit doubtless to boost interest rates within the Great Britain, sterling has found itself fraught, falling to its lowest levels since Gregorian calendar month towards the tip of last week. However, with a major purchase of sterling doubtless to require place within the wake of this deal, sterling found support across the board. Confidence appearance set to come back to British people economy generally

Revised Eurozone growth figures do little to help boost the euro

Yesterday was another muted day for the euro as the only significant data releases consisted of revised growth figures for the Eurozone, which came out at 0.4%, slightly better than the forecasted 0.3%, and the trade balance data for Germany which came out close to expectations and again highlighted the power of the German economy to generate exports. Against sterling, the euro briefly weakened to its worst level in three-weeks but did regain some ground in the afternoon. The euro was largely unchanged for the second day in a row against the US dollar, with the US markets opening again yesterday after Labour Day.

It would appear that the quiet week will continue for the single currency as there is no news out on Wednesday. This means that the euro is more susceptible than usual to events elsewhere.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Busier today following Labour Day in the US

Yesterday was a quiet day for data releases in the US, with only JOLTs job openings data released, which showed a figure that was slightly better than expected. This shows that there are continued job opportunities, which could be why the US Federal Reserve are not too worried about last week’s slump in non-farm employment change. We saw some movement in the US dollar, as sterling strengthened as a result of takeover talks at insurance giant Amlin.

There are more data releases from the US on the table today compared to the last couple of days. The weekly unemployment claims is expected to show a slight drop, while import prices are expected to decrease further due to the strengthening US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Black Monday fallout continues to affect the US dollar

Monday was Labor Day in the US, meaning there were no data releases affecting the currency released yesterday.

We expect today to be equally quiet, with no major data releases due to be released. The focus this week will be on Friday, with producer inflation expected to drop in to negative territory for the first time in four months. We also expect a decrease in consumer confidence; both of these examples can be linked to the recent struggles in China.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency purchasing strategies.

Will today’s data release enable sterling to regain its footing in the market?

Widespread turmoil in the financial markets this week has seen mixed fortunes for sterling. With the so called “Great Fall of China” on Monday preceding a day of losses throughout European and US stocks, sterling fell to a two-month low against the euro on the back of short-term profit taking by investors. On the flip side, the British currency also rose to a one-month high against the US dollar, although it was unable to maintain these levels as the week progressed

With no economic data released from the UK throughout the week, sterling found itself under pressure against a resurgent US dollar as equities staged a recovery worldwide. Following Monday’s sharp fall against the euro, the British currency was able to pushed back marginally throughout the week, and the single currency was unable to hold onto its more advantageous position.

Today sees the first major data release from the UK of the week. Following a positive economic growth estimate earlier in the year, the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to remain stable at 0.7% growth.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source: Smartcurrencyexchange

Sterling’s brief respite against the markets ends

Another tough day for sterling on Wednesday saw it fall to a two-and-a-half week low against a strong US dollar, whilst slipping close to Monday’s lows against the euro. With markets drawing breath on Tuesday, sterling was able to make marginal gains against the euro and US dollar but these were then erased throughout Wednesday thanks to a resumption in European and British stock declines saw sterling struggle across the board. Comments by Federal Reserve member Dudley which suggested a September interest rate-hike in the US was unlikely, but this was largely ignored by the markets as sterling continued to weaken.

Today sees the release of preliminary economic growth figures from the US for the previous quarter. This could have a significant effect on the markets, with growth expected to pick up to 0.7% compared to the previous year.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source:smartcurrencyexchange

The People Bank of China: Interest Rate Cuts and Lower Reserve Requirement Ratios

Breaking news from Beijing, China's central bank has announced the fourth recent round of interest cuts and lower reserve requirement ratios for small businesses, making small business owners and investors happier, as Beijing tries to shore up the country's sluggish economy.

As reported by Reuters, The People's Bank of China said Saturday that it would cut the rate on a one-year loan by commercial banks by 0.25 percentage point to 4.85 percent. The interest rate paid on a one-year deposit was lowered by 0.25 point to 2 percent.

Paul Krugman says he would vote "no" on Greece's upcoming referendum

Response the Greek referendum, Paul Krugman says "I would vote no, for two reasons."

The eurozone economic is on huge disaster, Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman says he would vote "no" on Greece's upcoming referendum on whether to accept the terms of a bailout put to it by its creditors. 

As reported from the newyork times Paul Krugman personal blog, Krugman explains that he would vote no because: one, because leaving the euro would be better than continuing the same program that has been in place for the last 5 years; and two, because voting yes on the referendum would essentially be a vote to replace Greece's Syriza government. 

Athens governor winner party, Syriza, led by current Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, campaigning on a platform of rejecting austerity measures imposed by Greece's creditors. But now the conditions and future of Greek is

Greece local newspaper: financial activity in the country grinds to a halt, stocks market and banking too

Emergency condition is happening in Greek, It looks like Greece's stock market is going to be closed for a week. as reported by Greek local newspaper Kathimerini in English version the Athens Stock Exchange is going to be closed for a week. 

Greek local newspaper Kathimerini reports that, "The Capital Market Commission is expected to announce in the early hours of Monday the closure of the Greek stock exchange for at least a week, as financial activity in the country grinds to a halt."

Many Greek local Banks were already to be closed for a week. As a result, Greek local newspaper Kathimerini reports, the closure of banks will limit the ability to process transactions on exchanges, and so it is unlikely that stock markets will re-open until the banks do. Greek stock market remain lower

As reported before on Sunday night, Greece has sought a short bailout extension, as the country's current program is set to expire on Tuesday while Greece has called for a referendum on the matter for July 5.

US DOLLAR RISES AS GERMAN AUCTION CONFİRMED PROBLEMS OF EU

The US dollar rose today as the German bond auction could be considered a disaster, fueling fears of the European debt contagion, while the US economy showed the signs of recovery.

Germany auctioned its debt today and missed its maximum target by 35 percent, sending yield higher and reinforcing the negative outlook for the future of the European economy. Economists explained that the bad outcome of the auction doesn’t mean that the German economy is bad, but rather shows that investors are reluctant to deal with any European economy, even such powerful as Germany. The fundamental data from Europe was mixed today, making it hard to asses the state of Europe’s economic health.

BRAZİLİAN REAL DROPS ON CHİNA’S MANUFACTURİNG

The Brazilian real fell today, while yesterday it was at the seven-week low, as the report showed that China’s manufacturing is slowing.

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in November from 51.0 in October. The reading below 50.0 indicates a decline of the industry. The surging borrowing costs of the European nations add to the reasons that deter investors from buying the riskier currencies, like the real.