US personal consumer expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% in May 2016, thereby matching market expectations.
The headline PCE deflator remained under pressure.
May's spending increase outpaced a 0.2% monthly personal income gain. The household saving rate slipped to 5.3% from 5.4% in April, but recent declines have to date only reversed a surprising spike higher during the first quarter to a recent peak of 6.0% in March. The May rate is back at the same level as in December 2015.
Our Take:
With an increase in May and upward revision to April, the volume of PCE is tracking a real second-quarter 2016 PCE gain closer to 4.0% (annualized rate) than our prior monitoring for a 3.5% increase. This would represent a significant bounce-back following the 1.5% first-quarter gain that marked the smallest quarterly increase in two years. Real disposable income growth has slowed somewhat to date in the second quarter but remains relatively solid (2.0% annualized in the second quarter to date relative to the first quarter and up 3.2% on a year-over-year basis in May), as partial offset to slower employment growth in recent months has come from real wage gains. Although we continue to expect supply issues (relatively low unemployment rate and slow working-age population growth) will ultimately limit the underlying pace of employment growth going forward relative to the 200,000-plus gains in recent years, tighter labour markets also imply further real wage gains. Financial market volatility emerging from last week's 'Brexit' vote in the UK could weigh on consumer confidence going forward but, alongside attendant US dollar strength, also could provide an already cautious Fed with another reason to delay further interest rate hikes. The combination of a solid household income backdrop and potentially lower for longer interest rates sets up household spending to remain a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP) growth going forward.
- Controlling for the effect of prices, the volume of spending rose by 0.3% to build on an upwardly revised 0.8% (was 0.6%) April gain.
The headline PCE deflator remained under pressure.
May's spending increase outpaced a 0.2% monthly personal income gain. The household saving rate slipped to 5.3% from 5.4% in April, but recent declines have to date only reversed a surprising spike higher during the first quarter to a recent peak of 6.0% in March. The May rate is back at the same level as in December 2015.
Our Take:
With an increase in May and upward revision to April, the volume of PCE is tracking a real second-quarter 2016 PCE gain closer to 4.0% (annualized rate) than our prior monitoring for a 3.5% increase. This would represent a significant bounce-back following the 1.5% first-quarter gain that marked the smallest quarterly increase in two years. Real disposable income growth has slowed somewhat to date in the second quarter but remains relatively solid (2.0% annualized in the second quarter to date relative to the first quarter and up 3.2% on a year-over-year basis in May), as partial offset to slower employment growth in recent months has come from real wage gains. Although we continue to expect supply issues (relatively low unemployment rate and slow working-age population growth) will ultimately limit the underlying pace of employment growth going forward relative to the 200,000-plus gains in recent years, tighter labour markets also imply further real wage gains. Financial market volatility emerging from last week's 'Brexit' vote in the UK could weigh on consumer confidence going forward but, alongside attendant US dollar strength, also could provide an already cautious Fed with another reason to delay further interest rate hikes. The combination of a solid household income backdrop and potentially lower for longer interest rates sets up household spending to remain a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP) growth going forward.
Source: www.actionforex.com
No comments:
Post a Comment