US Personal Spending up Solidly Q2/16 to Date

US personal consumer expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% in May 2016, thereby matching market expectations.

• Controlling for the effect of prices, the volume of spending rose by 0.3% to build on an upwardly revised 0.8% (was 0.6%) April gain.

Nominal spending on non-durable goods rose by 0.6% (mainly reflecting a 0.5% volumes increase), and durable purchases increased by 0.3%. Spending on services rose by 0.4%, although most of the increase reflected higher prices, with 'real' services spending up by 0.1% in the month.
The headline PCE deflator remained under pressure.
May's spending increase outpaced a 0.2% monthly personal income gain. The household saving rate slipped to 5.3% from 5.4% in April, but recent declines have to date only reversed a surprising spike higher during the first quarter to a recent peak of 6.0% in March. The May rate is back at the same level as in December 2015.

EURJPY - Sees Recovery On Correction

EURJPY - The pair remains biased to the upside on correction though retaining its broader medium term downtrend. Support comes in at the 113.00 level where a break will aim at the 112.50 level. A turn below here will target the 112.00 level with a breach turning focus to the 111.50 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 114.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 114.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 115.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 115.50 level. All in all, EURJPY eyes further bearishness medium term but faces nearer term recovery.

FTSE Not Out of the Woods Yet

The bigger the drop, the bigger the rebound. That is what has happened with the FTSE 100 index in the aftermath of the UK's vote to leave the EU. In fact, the rebound has been so profound that the index has nearly made good all the losses suffered since the Brexit vote. Clearly, some investors who were lucky enough to come through the Brexit-stimulated drop relatively unscathed may now use this opportunity to either cut or reduce their stocks holdings or at least hedge their exposure by shorting the FTSE. This could especially be the case since we are approaching month-end; it would not look good on money managers who hold stocks in sectors that dropped massively post the Brexit vote. Added to this, bearish speculators who missed the original plunge may be tempted to step in and ride the next potential drop. So the FTSE could easily turn back lower.

US$ Index, Long Held Target above 100.50 Remains

Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Jun 21st email, affirmed the bigger picture view of a bottoming (and potentially major bottoming, see longer term below) from that May 3rd spike low at 91.90. The market has indeed rallied since, breaking above the May 30th high at 95.95 and currently chopping near recent highs at 96.70/85 (also the ceiling of the bullish channel from that May 3rd low). Still a bigger picture bull with the recent break above the ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec adding to that view. On a short term basis however, there is scope for another few days/week of correcting before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below). Nearby support is seen at 95.65/80 and the broken ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec (currently at 94.90/05). Resistance remains at the recent highs/ceiling of the bull channel from the May 3rd low (currently at 96.70/85) and 97.25/40 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 100.50). Bottom line : still a big picture bull but risk for a another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the larger upmove.

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.1239. The shooting star formation I showed you yesterday gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.1150 and the lower line of the bullish channel which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1285. A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1350 region. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below the bullish channel would activate my bearish mode with nearest target seen around 1.1000.

USDJPY - Retest Of 2016 Low Maintains Bearish Pressure, Limited Upside Action Seen For Now

The pair retested last Thursday’s new 2016 low on overnight’s fresh weakness. Monday’s trading ended in red, after recovery action stalled at 104.82, confirming persisting downside pressure.
Long bearish candle of last week weighs, with daily technicals being in firm bearish mode.
Final break through 103.50 breakpoint could be delayed for prolonged consolidation, as daily RSI / Slow Stochastic are oversold. However, limited upside action is seen for now, with yesterday’s high at 104.82, marking solid resistance, ahead of 105.20 (Fibo 38.2% of 107.89/103.54 downleg) and former low at

EUR/USD – Euro Resumes Slide, Markets Eye Fed Rate Statement

EUR/USD has posted considerable losses on Tuesday, erasing the gains which marked the Monday session. The pair is trading slightly above the 1.12 level. On the release front, Eurozone Employment Change Industrial Production. Both indicators beat their estimates. In the US, today's highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. The estimate for both reports stands at 0.4%.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which will conclude with a rate statement on Wednesday. The markets have written off a rate hike in June, while a July move remains unlikely, according to the CME Group. The chances of a June hike are just 1.9% compared to a 26.3% in May. The chances of a July hike is 17.9%, compared to 43.2% in May. The sharp drop in market sentiment for a rate hike can be attributed to the dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls report as well as some back pedaling by Fed over the past few weeks.

USD/JPY – Yen Edges Lower, Fed Rate Statement Looms

The Japanese yen has edged lower, as the yen continues to show limited movement. USD/JPY is slightly below the 106 line. On the release front, Japanese Revised Industrial Production slipped to 0.5%, within expectations. In the US, today’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. The estimate for both reports stands at 0.4%.
USD/JPY continues to show little movement, but the yen has recorded strong gains against the euro and the British pound. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are at 3-year lows, in response to continuing uncertainty over the Brexit referendum, as the “Leave” camp has gained strength in recent polls.

Aussie Edges Lower as Australian Business Confidence Softens

The Australian dollar has posted small losses on Tuesday, continuing the lack of activity which marked the Monday session. The pair is trading at 0.7360 in the North American session. On the release front, Australian NAB Business Confidence dipped to 3 points. Later in the day, Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment. In the US, Core Retail Sales matched the forecast with a gain of 0.4%, while Retail Sales edged above the forecast, climbing 0.5%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its rate statement, with the markets expecting no change to interest rate levels.

Pound Sterling US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast GBP USD to Drop on Strong US Jobs Data

Euro Rallied Yesterday following Shock ECB Decision

The euro (currency : EUR) stole the limelight in the global currency markets yesterday afternoon, as the latest European Central Bank policy announcement saw President Mario Draghi announce a distinctly underwhelming set of monetary policy alterations. 

Hawkish Yellen Improves Fed December Rate Hike Predictions

However, thing are different, very different, on the other side of the Atlantic. Draghi’s US counterpart, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, made some eyebrow-raising comments to Congress shortly after the Italian moneyman had left the stage. 

Sterling reverses losses against the US dollar

A relatively quiet day for sterling saw the currency make gains against a weakened US dollar, and trade largely sideways versus the euro. German factory orders were shown to have fallen throughout September but, with UK housing inflation also contracting throughout the month, sterling was unable to capitalise on this. US trade balance data provided the main point of interest during the afternoon, and as this figure reported a larger deficit than forecast, sterling was able to capitalise and reverse the small losses suffered on Monday.

Manufacturing production data will be released from the UK this morning, and should provide further insight into the health of this sector. With manufacturing growth seemingly on target throughout September, investors will be hoping for a positive reading following the previous month’s contraction.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source:smartcurrencyexchange.com

Will the euro sustain yesterday’s good graces

The euro had a good start to the day against sterling and the US dollar on Monday, as overall sentiment for a US rate hike in the upcoming months became more unlikely. It was a very quiet day for the single currency on the data front. Italian business confidence data was released, coming out much better than expected, at 104.2 in comparison to the forecasted figure of 102.7. The euro finally breached the key resistance level against sterling of 1.35, a key level it hadn’t broken since May this year.

Today is an important day for the single currency, with Business and Consumer confidence data due from the Eurozone. Given the strength of today’s Italian figure, it is hoped that the Eurozone data will also be improved; whether the former was sufficient to affect the latter remains to be seen. Germany also releases its preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data; an indicator of inflation, it is forecast to fall to a negative figure of -0.1%, down from 0%. Falling below the zero percent line is a physiological level and is likely to unsettle the single currency yet again.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source:smartcurrencyexchange.com

What is Forex Trading?

Foreign Exchange or FX or Forex trading is the trading in currencies. FX market is the largest financial market in the world, providing the highest liquidity. It features a trade volume of $3.2 trillion and more everyday!

FX trade is famous for its staggering profits as well as for its high risks. This is a decentralized market. There is no tangible platform where buyers and sellers meet. Trader's trade through a network, online is the most preferred one. This market is spread across many time zones of the world. The market never sleeps. It is open 24 hours for 5 and half days a week.

Knowing Forex Better

FX is the medium through which traders exchange currencies of different countries at a price influenced by the market. You might wonder: why trade currencies? One of the reasons is payment of services and products by global companies. Another reason is the forecast of exchange rate movements and an urge to make the most of such fluctuations.

Some of you might ponder: why do exchange rates fluctuate? Well, the value of currencies fluctuates because of the constant change in their demand. The varying rates in Forex trading show the variation in demand.

Becoming A FX Trader

In this trading, you buy a currency when its value is less and sell it when its value is high. Sounds simple, right? Well, the trick is to know WHEN to buy or sell. The entire game revolves around this "when". Fortunes have changed because people did the right thing at the right time. On the other hand, some people have also lost tremendously because they failed to recognize the right time to make the moves. Also, whether you should act on impulse or be always rational is also a matter of consideration in Forex trading.

Currency prices are controlled by a combination of factors, unlike share prices that depend on the profit of companies. The challenge of currency trading lies in forecasting the value of currency. A bigger challenge lies in making the right moves after the forecast.

The good thing about FX trade is the availability of "practice accounts" for beginners. You can get them through most FX brokers. You practice trading virtual currencies based on real exchange prices. It gives you a sense of this trade. When you plunge into the real thing, you don't feel like an alien. Besides this, you can research on Forex trading. There are many websites providing thorough information on how to trade in foreign currencies. They guide you and familiarize you with the strategies used by people who have made millions through FX. Guess what? You can also enroll in FX educational courses to master the art of buying and selling currencies!

No matter what anybody says, the fact is you learn the tricks only when you try out Forex trading. Nobody arrives here as the winner. You need to understand this kind of trade, consult with brokers or financial advisors, and keep a tab on the market trend to gain something out of this high-risk "gamble".

Amlin purchase bid boosts sterling

With very little economic news of note discharged on Tues, sterling announce gains against each the monetary unit and North American nation dollar as news poor of a £3.5 billion bid by a Japanese company, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, to buy Great Britain nondepository financial institution Amlin.

With investors recently pushing back dates on once the Bank of European country (BoE) area unit doubtless to boost interest rates within the Great Britain, sterling has found itself fraught, falling to its lowest levels since Gregorian calendar month towards the tip of last week. However, with a major purchase of sterling doubtless to require place within the wake of this deal, sterling found support across the board. Confidence appearance set to come back to British people economy generally

Busier today following Labour Day in the US

Yesterday was a quiet day for data releases in the US, with only JOLTs job openings data released, which showed a figure that was slightly better than expected. This shows that there are continued job opportunities, which could be why the US Federal Reserve are not too worried about last week’s slump in non-farm employment change. We saw some movement in the US dollar, as sterling strengthened as a result of takeover talks at insurance giant Amlin.

There are more data releases from the US on the table today compared to the last couple of days. The weekly unemployment claims is expected to show a slight drop, while import prices are expected to decrease further due to the strengthening US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Will today’s data release enable sterling to regain its footing in the market?

Widespread turmoil in the financial markets this week has seen mixed fortunes for sterling. With the so called “Great Fall of China” on Monday preceding a day of losses throughout European and US stocks, sterling fell to a two-month low against the euro on the back of short-term profit taking by investors. On the flip side, the British currency also rose to a one-month high against the US dollar, although it was unable to maintain these levels as the week progressed

With no economic data released from the UK throughout the week, sterling found itself under pressure against a resurgent US dollar as equities staged a recovery worldwide. Following Monday’s sharp fall against the euro, the British currency was able to pushed back marginally throughout the week, and the single currency was unable to hold onto its more advantageous position.

Today sees the first major data release from the UK of the week. Following a positive economic growth estimate earlier in the year, the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to remain stable at 0.7% growth.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source: Smartcurrencyexchange

Sterling’s brief respite against the markets ends

Another tough day for sterling on Wednesday saw it fall to a two-and-a-half week low against a strong US dollar, whilst slipping close to Monday’s lows against the euro. With markets drawing breath on Tuesday, sterling was able to make marginal gains against the euro and US dollar but these were then erased throughout Wednesday thanks to a resumption in European and British stock declines saw sterling struggle across the board. Comments by Federal Reserve member Dudley which suggested a September interest rate-hike in the US was unlikely, but this was largely ignored by the markets as sterling continued to weaken.

Today sees the release of preliminary economic growth figures from the US for the previous quarter. This could have a significant effect on the markets, with growth expected to pick up to 0.7% compared to the previous year.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Source:smartcurrencyexchange

USD/JPY Forecast: Yen soars as US Retail Sales miss

Yen soars as US Retail Sales miss. The USD/JPY pair extended its pullback after being as high as 123.72 earlier this week, weighed by poor US Retail Sales data. The big miss helped the Japanese yen to resume its advance, and the USD/JPY now struggles around the 123.00 level. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMAs stand well below the current price, with the largest offering a dynamic support in the 122.45 region,whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have also turned strongly lower from overbought levels, but so far remain above their mid-lines, suggesting the bearish movement could be just corrective. Nevertheless, renewed selling pressure below 122.90 should lead to a test of the mentioned 122.45 level, while below this last, the slide can extend down to 122.00. To the upside, 123.30 is key, as selling interest should surge around the level, to maintain the bearish tone in place.

Support levels: 122.90 122.45 122.00

Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124.10 

Source:    www.fxstreet.com

BRAZİLİAN REAL DROPS ON CHİNA’S MANUFACTURİNG

The Brazilian real fell today, while yesterday it was at the seven-week low, as the report showed that China’s manufacturing is slowing.

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in November from 51.0 in October. The reading below 50.0 indicates a decline of the industry. The surging borrowing costs of the European nations add to the reasons that deter investors from buying the riskier currencies, like the real.

POUND REMAİNS WEEK AS CONFİDENCE REACHES RECORD LOW

The Great Britain strengthened a little yesterday as the retail sales rose last month, but the currency hasn't been able to retain its upward momentum and currently moves without a clear direction.

The volume of the UK retail sales increased 0.6 percent in October from September, following the 0.5 percent increase in the preceding month. That’s much better than market expectations of a 0.2 percent drop. The value of the sales rose 0.7 percent. The report noted that small stores performed better than larger ones.