US Personal Spending up Solidly Q2/16 to Date

US personal consumer expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% in May 2016, thereby matching market expectations.

• Controlling for the effect of prices, the volume of spending rose by 0.3% to build on an upwardly revised 0.8% (was 0.6%) April gain.

Nominal spending on non-durable goods rose by 0.6% (mainly reflecting a 0.5% volumes increase), and durable purchases increased by 0.3%. Spending on services rose by 0.4%, although most of the increase reflected higher prices, with 'real' services spending up by 0.1% in the month.
The headline PCE deflator remained under pressure.
May's spending increase outpaced a 0.2% monthly personal income gain. The household saving rate slipped to 5.3% from 5.4% in April, but recent declines have to date only reversed a surprising spike higher during the first quarter to a recent peak of 6.0% in March. The May rate is back at the same level as in December 2015.

EURJPY - Sees Recovery On Correction

EURJPY - The pair remains biased to the upside on correction though retaining its broader medium term downtrend. Support comes in at the 113.00 level where a break will aim at the 112.50 level. A turn below here will target the 112.00 level with a breach turning focus to the 111.50 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 114.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 114.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 115.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 115.50 level. All in all, EURJPY eyes further bearishness medium term but faces nearer term recovery.

US$ Index, Long Held Target above 100.50 Remains

Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Jun 21st email, affirmed the bigger picture view of a bottoming (and potentially major bottoming, see longer term below) from that May 3rd spike low at 91.90. The market has indeed rallied since, breaking above the May 30th high at 95.95 and currently chopping near recent highs at 96.70/85 (also the ceiling of the bullish channel from that May 3rd low). Still a bigger picture bull with the recent break above the ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec adding to that view. On a short term basis however, there is scope for another few days/week of correcting before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below). Nearby support is seen at 95.65/80 and the broken ceiling of the bearish channel from Dec (currently at 94.90/05). Resistance remains at the recent highs/ceiling of the bull channel from the May 3rd low (currently at 96.70/85) and 97.25/40 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 100.50). Bottom line : still a big picture bull but risk for a another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the larger upmove.

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.1239. The shooting star formation I showed you yesterday gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.1150 and the lower line of the bullish channel which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1285. A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1350 region. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below the bullish channel would activate my bearish mode with nearest target seen around 1.1000.

Crude Back at $50 as Traders Anticipate Sharp Draw in US Stocks

Oil prices are little-changed at the time of this writing after they snapped back into the positive territory and above $50 a barrel late in the day yesterday. Both oil contracts were lower in the first half of yesterday's session. This was possibly due to a rebounding US dollar and profit-taking ahead of US oil inventories data, especially since prices had risen rather sharply in the prior couple of days. Crude oil, which has been unable to decouple itself from risk assets, was also tracking the movements in equities and GBP ahead of the all-important Brexit vote on Thursday. The GBP/USD and stocks gave up their earlier advance yesterday after new polls showed support for Brexit had increased a tad. So oil was coming under pressure from this source, too.

USDJPY - Retest Of 2016 Low Maintains Bearish Pressure, Limited Upside Action Seen For Now

The pair retested last Thursday’s new 2016 low on overnight’s fresh weakness. Monday’s trading ended in red, after recovery action stalled at 104.82, confirming persisting downside pressure.
Long bearish candle of last week weighs, with daily technicals being in firm bearish mode.
Final break through 103.50 breakpoint could be delayed for prolonged consolidation, as daily RSI / Slow Stochastic are oversold. However, limited upside action is seen for now, with yesterday’s high at 104.82, marking solid resistance, ahead of 105.20 (Fibo 38.2% of 107.89/103.54 downleg) and former low at

EUR/USD – Euro Resumes Slide, Markets Eye Fed Rate Statement

EUR/USD has posted considerable losses on Tuesday, erasing the gains which marked the Monday session. The pair is trading slightly above the 1.12 level. On the release front, Eurozone Employment Change Industrial Production. Both indicators beat their estimates. In the US, today's highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. The estimate for both reports stands at 0.4%.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which will conclude with a rate statement on Wednesday. The markets have written off a rate hike in June, while a July move remains unlikely, according to the CME Group. The chances of a June hike are just 1.9% compared to a 26.3% in May. The chances of a July hike is 17.9%, compared to 43.2% in May. The sharp drop in market sentiment for a rate hike can be attributed to the dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls report as well as some back pedaling by Fed over the past few weeks.

Busier today following Labour Day in the US

Yesterday was a quiet day for data releases in the US, with only JOLTs job openings data released, which showed a figure that was slightly better than expected. This shows that there are continued job opportunities, which could be why the US Federal Reserve are not too worried about last week’s slump in non-farm employment change. We saw some movement in the US dollar, as sterling strengthened as a result of takeover talks at insurance giant Amlin.

There are more data releases from the US on the table today compared to the last couple of days. The weekly unemployment claims is expected to show a slight drop, while import prices are expected to decrease further due to the strengthening US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Good news for the US dollar is bad news for the Indian rupee

The Indian rupee sunk to a two year low yesterday amid fears that the country’s emerging market assets would be negatively affected should the talk of a US interest rate hike come to fruition. Shares in India dropped 1.2% to their lowest in 15 months, as data confirmed on Friday that the jobless rate in the US had fallen to a seven year low. The fact that more people are in work strengthens the Federal Reserve’s case to increase borrowing rates.

It is expected that the rupee will continue to be volatility until the Federal Reserve makes a final decision on rates.

Are you looking to buy or sell currencies? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency purchasing strategies

Black Monday fallout continues to affect the US dollar

Monday was Labor Day in the US, meaning there were no data releases affecting the currency released yesterday.

We expect today to be equally quiet, with no major data releases due to be released. The focus this week will be on Friday, with producer inflation expected to drop in to negative territory for the first time in four months. We also expect a decrease in consumer confidence; both of these examples can be linked to the recent struggles in China.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency purchasing strategies.

USD/JPY Forecast: Yen soars as US Retail Sales miss

Yen soars as US Retail Sales miss. The USD/JPY pair extended its pullback after being as high as 123.72 earlier this week, weighed by poor US Retail Sales data. The big miss helped the Japanese yen to resume its advance, and the USD/JPY now struggles around the 123.00 level. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMAs stand well below the current price, with the largest offering a dynamic support in the 122.45 region,whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have also turned strongly lower from overbought levels, but so far remain above their mid-lines, suggesting the bearish movement could be just corrective. Nevertheless, renewed selling pressure below 122.90 should lead to a test of the mentioned 122.45 level, while below this last, the slide can extend down to 122.00. To the upside, 123.30 is key, as selling interest should surge around the level, to maintain the bearish tone in place.

Support levels: 122.90 122.45 122.00

Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124.10 

Source:    www.fxstreet.com

US DOLLAR RISES AS GERMAN AUCTION CONFİRMED PROBLEMS OF EU

The US dollar rose today as the German bond auction could be considered a disaster, fueling fears of the European debt contagion, while the US economy showed the signs of recovery.

Germany auctioned its debt today and missed its maximum target by 35 percent, sending yield higher and reinforcing the negative outlook for the future of the European economy. Economists explained that the bad outcome of the auction doesn’t mean that the German economy is bad, but rather shows that investors are reluctant to deal with any European economy, even such powerful as Germany. The fundamental data from Europe was mixed today, making it hard to asses the state of Europe’s economic health.

DOLLAR ENDS RALLY ON INTEREST RATES COMMENTS

After gaining since the beginning of this trading session on speculations that a robust U.S. economy would provide grounds for borrowing costs to rise in the following months, the dollar slid as government officials stated otherwise.

DOLLAR RISE ON U.S. STOCKS DECLINE

After a very sharp fall versus the euro and high-yielding currencies, the dollar gained today as equities markets, specially in the U.S. ended a rally that started in the beginning of the week with renewed optimism regarding the Dubai debt.

Dollar Slumps After Jobs Miss and Other Top Forex News.

The U.S. dollar fell against most of its rivals on Friday after U.S. jobs data came in under expectations, fuelling uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Official data showed that the U.S. economy added 169,000 jobs in August, less than the expected 180,000 increase, after a downwardly revised 104,000 rise the previous month.

Top Trade Idea for September 6th, 2013 – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD daily chart shows a clear downtrend. There’s potential for a strong read on non-farm payrolls tonight to drive further USD strength, and another leg down for EUR/USD. Leaning on the daily trend, traders may turn to the hourly chart for an entry signal.